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An ex–Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball’s famed sabermetrics and beat the Vegas odds with his own betting methods. Here is the story of how Joe Peta turned fantasy baseball into a dream come true.
Joe Peta turned his back on his Wall Street trading career to pursue an ingenious—and incredibly risky—dream. He would apply his risk-analysis skills to Major League Baseball, and treat the sport like the S&P 500.
In Trading Bases, Peta takes us on his journey from the ballpark in San Francisco to the trading floors and baseball bars of New York and the sportsbooks of Las Vegas, telling the story of how he created a baseball “hedge fund” with an astounding 41 percent return in his first year. And he explains the unique methods he developed.
Along the way, Peta provides insight into the Wall Street crisis he managed to escape: the fragility of the midnineties investment model; the disgraced former CEO of Lehman Brothers, who recruited Peta; and the high-adrenaline atmosphere where million-dollar sports-betting pools were common.
- Sales Rank: #358933 in eBooks
- Published on: 2013-03-07
- Released on: 2013-03-07
- Format: Kindle eBook
From Booklist
Peta, a successful Wall Street trader, found himself confined to a wheelchair in early 2011—he had suffered multiple injuries after being struck by an ambulance as he was walking in Lower Manhattan—and then fired by his employer, Nomura Securities. Reengaging with the world by joining his love of statistical analysis to baseball, Peta created a reliable system for beating Vegas odds throughout the 2011 Major League season. It would be easy to call out Peta for cynically using sport for financial gain—and he can be unnervingly detached when crunching numbers—but it’s clear that he loves the game itself as much as the winnings. Moreover, he asks a number of salient questions, such as: How can businesses on Wall Street and beyond apply the thinking used by baseball sabermetricians to strengthen their own organizations? The answers, and how Peta arrived at them, make for great reading. --Alan Moores
Review
“Fascinating…reads like a mash up of Liar’s Poker and Moneyball.”—Publishers Weekly
“[A] swaggering story from frantic stock trader to professional sports bettor....Even casual baseball fans could learn from it. Serious fans should slurp it up like ballpark beer.”—Los Angeles Times
“He reminds me of Nate Silver—he’s able to blend different worlds (in this case, baseball and finance) using his intense knowledge of each to give us a very entertaining read.”—Play-by-Play Announcer for the San Francisco Giants and ESPN National Sportscaster Dave Flemming
“Peta created a reliable system for beating Vegas odds throughout the 2011 Major League season…but it’s clear he loves the game as much as the winnings. Moreover, he asks a number of salient questions, such as: How can businesses on Wall Street and beyond apply thinking used by baseball sabermetricians to strengthen their own organizations? The answers, and how Peta arrived at them, make for great reading.”—Booklist
From the Back Cover
"Fascinating. . . . The deftly explained math only enhances the ballpark drama. . . . Peta's hardheaded but warmhearted narrative reads like a mash-up of Liar's Poker and Moneyball peppered with besotted evocations of emerald-green outfields and sports-bar camaraderie. His is that rare finance saga that's both smart and loads of fun." -- Publisher's Weekly
"Joe Peta has a wonderful story to tell and precious insights into the evaluation of talent, investments, and risk. This is a great book for anyone with capital to allocate. But if you love baseball half as much as Peta does, you will find Trading Bases absolutely irresistible." -- Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and An Economist Gets Lunch
"Joe Peta has joined the new wave of baseball analysts who are changing the way many of us look at the game. He is taking a rightful place alongside guys like Jonah Keri, Jay Jaffe, and Dave Cameron as must-reads for me in the baseball landscape. He reminds me in some ways of Nate Silver -- he's able to blend different worlds (in this case, baseball and finance) using his intense knowledge of each to give us a very entertaining read." -- Dave Flemming, play-by-play announcer for the San Francisco Giants and ESPN national sportscaster
Most helpful customer reviews
35 of 36 people found the following review helpful.
IPOs, RBIs, and LOLs.
By takingadayoff
Trading Bases is an appealing mix of memoir, baseball stats, and gambling strategy. By combining the elements, author Joe Peta has managed to make a book that could have been too detailed for anyone but the most dedicated baseball fan or gamblers, into a narrative that reaches beyond those groups. Peta's amiable style is also a real plus -- this could easily have been another ego-driven story about the wonderfulness of a former Wall Street insider and his financial brilliance. Instead, Peta manages to convey his success and chops without coming across as what Michael Lewis called a BSD in Liar's Poker.
Be warned however, that if you are hoping for a black box method to riches or a sure-fire formula to instant wealth, you won't find it here. Peta is a huge baseball fan, and doesn't mind spending hours every day poring over statistics and crunching numbers. He also is deeply into odds and probabilities. If you are too, then there are enough graphs and charts in the book to make your mouth water. Peta has found a way not to beat the odds, but to make sure you only bet when the odds are in your favor. It takes a lot of time and math, and if you aren't seriously interested in baseball and numbers, this isn't the plan for you.
As a fun read though, if you just zip past the charts and formulas, there's an engaging story here by an author that knows his stuff and still seems like a nice guy.
19 of 20 people found the following review helpful.
Crunching MLB's Numbers for Profit*
By Larry Underwood
Joe Peta seemed to have it made, landing a very lucrative job with a Japanese investment bank on Wall Street. Unfortunately, fate dealt him a bad hand - or in this case, a badly injured leg - after an out-of-control ambulance put the pedestrian in a wheel chair for an extended period of time, and ultimately out of that very lucrative job; just like that.
As Peta was recuperating, he would immerse himself in the latest Baseball Prospectus for hours on end, to take his mind off his plight; at least for a while. One day he had a brainstorm - he would apply his analytical knowledge of baseball, crunch the numbers, and develop a model for predicting with a relatively high level of probability, how the games themselves would play out. He was going to beat Las Vegas; not an easy proposition, but one that ultimately paid a very nice annual return - 41% to be exact.
As Peta's engaging tale unfolds, he walks the reader through the various formulas for predicting certain outcomes in MLB, and how luck - good or bad -sometimes comes into play in making things unpredictable. The baseball sabermetric community will love this book, as will anyone who likes to gamble a bit, or figure out what's going to happen on Wall Street.
Of course, the usual disclaimer applies here: *The results were attained by a trained professional. Your results may vary.
20 of 22 people found the following review helpful.
A Dugout Full of Unexpected Charm
By Girl of Summer
It starts with the dedication.
Before you ever get to a word about Wall Street, about gambling, or even baseball in Joe Peta's memoir, there is an 11 word dedication -- shorter than the average tweet -- that gives you a clue Trading Bases isn't your run-of-the-mill book about any of those topics. I won't reveal it here, but it's sweet, funny and charming and by the time I got to the middle of the book where the numbers-heavy passages subtlely morphed into unexpectedly charming storytelling, I realized, just like the "not necessarily in that order" subtitle, it provided a clue as to what was to come.
The chapters dealing with sabermetrics -- the science of baseball statistics Peta credits men like Bill James and Nate Silver with creating -- are fortunately filled with pop culture references and analogies not related to numbers so that they read easily, even for those who are inclined to skip the tables scattered across those early chapters. But once the foundation of those early chapters are set, they serve as a starting point for discussions on Lehman Brothers, the financial crisis, the similarities between Las Vegas bookmakers and Wall Street traders and, of course, being a baseball fan. It's the baseball discussions -- the experience of enjoying a game in a bar with friends, the oh-so-American tradition of having a catch with your dad, etc -- that are so moving I found myself reaching for tissues. Chapter 12 alone, which I won't spoil with details, earns this book 5 stars.
It won't surprise me if the gamblers and traders that share Joe's interests love this book. What might shock them is how much their wives and parents do too.
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